Portugal forecasts economic growth of 2.1 per cent by the end of 2025: What does this mean for SMEs?
The Portuguese government predicts GDP growth of around 2.1% in 2025, after an estimated expansion of between 1.8% and 1.9% in 2024. Other organisations such as the European Commission and CaixaBank Research point to a moderate but stable recovery, with figures varying between 2.1% and 2.4%. But beyond the macroeconomic indicators, the big question for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is: how can we turn this economic scenario into a real growth engine? In this article, we explain the main opportunities and challenges for Portuguese SMEs and what they can do to capitalise on the new economic cycle.
Portugal forecasts economic growth of 2.1 per cent by the end of 2025: What does this mean for SMEs?
The Portuguese government predicts GDP growth of around 2.1% in 2025, after an estimated expansion of between 1.8% and 1.9% in 2024. Other organisations such as the European Commission and CaixaBank Research point to a moderate but stable recovery, with figures varying between 2.1% and 2.4%. But beyond the macroeconomic indicators, the big question for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is: how can we turn this economic scenario into a real growth engine? In this article, we explain the main opportunities and challenges for Portuguese SMEs and what they can do to capitalise on the new economic cycle.
Key economic data for 2025
| Indicator | Forecast 2025 |
|---|---|
| GDP growth | 2.1% (Governo/CE), up to 2.4% (CaixaBank) |
| Inflation | 2.1%-2.2% (↓ compared to 2.7% in 2024) |
| Public debit | Reduction to 91.7% of GDP |
| Unemployment rate | Stable at around 6.4% |
| National minimum wage | Expected increase to € €870 |
What does this mean for SMEs?
1. A sign of confidence to invest
The predicted economic growth conveys stability and reduces uncertainty in management decisions. This is essential for
- Expanding operations or opening new points of sale
- Investing in technology and digitalisation
- Strengthening teams and attracting specialised talent
- Apply for public and European support with greater confidence
In addition, with lower country risk, banks tend to soften credit restrictions, making financing more accessible.
2. Increased domestic consumption and new market windows
With moderate inflation and rising disposable income (salaries and pensions), domestic consumption should grow. SMEs can capitalise on this in sectors such as:
- Retail and local commerce
- Tourism and catering
- Technology, proximity services and well-being
But increased demand also brings the need to innovate, adjust prices and improve customer service.
3. Exporting and internationalising: 2025 is the year to gain scale
The recovery of the European economy, although uneven, represents an opportunity for SMEs to strengthen or start exporting. There is concrete support such as the €11 billion package launched in April 2025 for exporters and funds that cover:
- Business projects
- Certifications
- International marketing
- Support for presence in non-EU markets
4. Accelerating the digital and green transition
The PRR and Portugal 2030 funds are supporting structuring investments in:
- Digitalisation of processes and automation
- Energy efficiency and renewable energies
- Circular economy and ESG practices
These investments increase the competitiveness and resilience of SMEs, as well as responding to regulatory pressure and more demanding consumer behaviour.
Despite the good prospects, there are risks and limitations to bear in mind:
- Rising costs: Despite the increase in salaries
- Shortage of talent: Many sectors face difficulties in finding qualified labour.
- Bureaucracy and delays in support: The slow execution of European funds can delay projects planned by many companies.
Indicators that SMEs should monitor closely
| Indicator | Relevance for SMEs |
|---|---|
| GDP | Adjust growth plans |
| Inflation | Review margins and pricing policies |
| Unemployment | Monitor availability of talent |
| Interest rates/credit | Financial planning and investments |
| Implementation of European funds | Support and co-financing opportunities |
2025 could be the turning point with a strategy
The economic growth forecast for 2025 creates favourable conditions for SME growth, but success will depend on the ability to adapt, plan and innovate.
Essential strategies for SMEs:
- Create investment plans with alternative scenarios
- Take advantage of current credit lines and incentive programmes
- Invest in digital transformation and sustainability
- Promote continuous training and talent retention
Do you want to prepare your SME for 2025?
We have consultancy services specialising in attracting funding. Talk to us to build a solid and sustainable strategic plan.
Andreia Arenga
28.07.2025
All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted or used, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Equações Exaustivas Lda. All trademarks, company names, logos and products mentioned are the property of their respective owners.
Key economic data for 2025
| Indicator | Forecast 2025 |
|---|---|
| GDP growth | 2.1% (Governo/CE), up to 2.4% (CaixaBank) |
| Inflation | 2.1%-2.2% (↓ compared to 2.7% in 2024) |
| Public debit | Reduction to 91.7% of GDP |
| Unemployment rate | Stable at around 6.4% |
| National minimum wage | Expected increase to € €870 |
What does this mean for SMEs?
1. A sign of confidence to invest
The predicted economic growth conveys stability and reduces uncertainty in management decisions. This is essential for
- Expanding operations or opening new points of sale
- Investing in technology and digitalisation
- Strengthening teams and attracting specialised talent
- Apply for public and European support with greater confidence
In addition, with lower country risk, banks tend to soften credit restrictions, making financing more accessible.
2. Increased domestic consumption and new market windows
With moderate inflation and rising disposable income (salaries and pensions), domestic consumption should grow. SMEs can capitalise on this in sectors such as:
- Retail and local commerce
- Tourism and catering
- Technology, proximity services and well-being
But increased demand also brings the need to innovate, adjust prices and improve customer service.
3. Exporting and internationalising: 2025 is the year to gain scale
The recovery of the European economy, although uneven, represents an opportunity for SMEs to strengthen or start exporting. There is concrete support such as the €11 billion package launched in April 2025 for exporters and funds that cover:
- Business projects
- Certifications
- International marketing
- Support for presence in non-EU markets
4. Accelerating the digital and green transition
The PRR and Portugal 2030 funds are supporting structuring investments in:
- Digitalisation of processes and automation
- Energy efficiency and renewable energies
- Circular economy and ESG practices
These investments increase the competitiveness and resilience of SMEs, as well as responding to regulatory pressure and more demanding consumer behaviour.
Despite the good prospects, there are risks and limitations to bear in mind:
- Rising costs: Despite the increase in salaries
- Shortage of talent: Many sectors face difficulties in finding qualified labour.
- Bureaucracy and delays in support: The slow execution of European funds can delay projects planned by many companies.
Indicators that SMEs should monitor closely
| Indicator | Relevance for SMEs |
|---|---|
| GDP | Adjust growth plans |
| Inflation | Review margins and pricing policies |
| Unemployment | Monitor availability of talent |
| Interest rates/credit | Financial planning and investments |
| Implementation of European funds | Support and co-financing opportunities |
2025 could be the turning point with a strategy
The economic growth forecast for 2025 creates favourable conditions for SME growth, but success will depend on the ability to adapt, plan and innovate.
Essential strategies for SMEs:
- Create investment plans with alternative scenarios
- Take advantage of current credit lines and incentive programmes
- Invest in digital transformation and sustainability
- Promote continuous training and talent retention
Do you want to prepare your SME for 2025?
We have consultancy services specialising in attracting funding. Talk to us to build a solid and sustainable strategic plan.
Andreia Arenga
28.07.2025
All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted or used, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Equações Exaustivas Lda. All trademarks, company names, logos and products mentioned are the property of their respective owners.
